Sealand Securities: Top group buy rating
Reaearch overview overview Overview Overview overview overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview Overview overview overviewTop Group (601689) events: Top Group issued 2021 annual performance express and 2022 January to February performance announcement: in 2021, the company to achieve operating revenue of 11.438 billion yuan, +75.68%;Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.045 billion yuan, +66.39% year-on-year;Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deduction is 986 million yuan, +71.63% year-on-year.From January to February 2022, the company achieved revenue of about 2.53 billion yuan, about +60% year-on-year;Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 250 million yuan, about +64% year-on-year.Investment highlights: 2021 Q4 performance in line with expectations.In Q4, 2021, the company’s revenue is 3.616 billion yuan, +64.9% year on year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 292 million yuan, +21.3% year on year. Considering the impairment of goodwill of Zhejiang Jiali and Sichuan Fordona, which were acquired in 2017, the performance is in line with expectations.As the core supplier of Tesla, the company got off to a good start in 2022.Tesla, a major customer of the company, delivered 936,000 units globally in 2021, +87% year-on-year. Tesla sold 116,360 units domestically in January-February 2022, up 244% year-on-year.We expect tesla to sell 1.7 million cars globally in 2022, of which 800,000 will be domestically produced.From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.53 billion yuan, about +60% year-on-year, and realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 250 million yuan, about +64% year-on-year.Excellent customer structure, revenue through the ceiling of the traditional system.The company’s customers mainly include Tesla, Geely, GM, etc., and the supply system of NIO, Ideal and Xiaopeng is growing rapidly. Meanwhile, the company also enters into new forces such as Rivian and Lucid, among which the value of supporting Rivian is as high as 11,000 yuan.We are optimistic that Tesla will become the largest customer and new forces will enter the top five domestic suppliers of Tesla industry chain. This customer structure also drives suppliers to break through the ceiling of traditional supporting system.Top Group, the new power in components.The company’s overall layout of integrated die casting, line control motion, air suspension, electric steering wheel, electric doors, sliding chassis and other new business.Recently, the company has mass-produced 7200T integrated die-casting rear cabin in Hangzhou Bay manufacturing base, supporting high-precision vehicles, becoming the first mass production of super-large integrated aluminum alloy structural parts parts supplier;The company’s air suspension is scheduled to be officially put into operation in June 2022. After the new plant is put into operation, the annual output of 2 million air suspensions can be realized, meeting the requirements of 500,000 vehicles annually.The company’s latest generation of intelligent brake system IBS-Pro is expected to be mass-produced this year, meeting the requirements of 500,000 vehicles, which is also a more integrated one-box line control dynamic solution;Company also the layout of electric adjusting the steering wheel and electric door, at the same time the company can also provide from thermal management, intelligent brake, wire control steering and electric power steering, air suspension system level integration of skateboard chassis solution, we believe that Rio’s group is the new parts, is expected to become the international era of intelligent electric auto parts suppliers.Earnings forecasts and investment ratings give the company a “buy” rating.We are optimistic about tesla’s production and manufacturing revolution, which will promote the next stage of Tesla wave. As a core supplier of Tesla, Top Group is expected to achieve main business income of 11.4, 17.3 and 22.1 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 76%, 51% and 28%.Net profit of RMB 10.05, 1.69 and 2.19 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 66%, 61% and 30%;Corresponding EPS is 0.99, 1.60, 2.08 yuan.Risk tip 1) Raw material prices continue to rise;2) International shipping prices continue to rise;3) Sales growth of new energy vehicles is less than expected;4) The company’s new customer expansion is not as expected;5) The company’s new business development is not as expected.The unit in the recent 90 days a total of 15 institutions to give ratings, buy rating 12, overweight rating 3;The average institutional price target over the past 90 days is 62.9.According to the Securities Star valuation analysis tool, Top Group (601689) has a good company rating of 3 stars, a good price rating of 2 stars, and a valuation composite rating of 2.5 stars.(Rating range: 1 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars) The above content is collated by Securities Star according to public information, if you have any questions, please contact us.