Four days fell 145 billion, Maotai is not 3000, Citic securities was beaten in the face
Article | zhen-tao liu before the year of the tiger lunar New Year, some say, maotai is not falling, the bull market instability.After the Spring Festival in the year of the Tiger, Maotai fell, the bull market, ah…In the two trading days since the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, Moutai had a bad day, falling for two consecutive days.At one point on The morning of February 8, Moutai’s shares fell more than 4 percent to below the 1,800 yuan mark.By the close of Trading on February 8, Moutai had fallen 1.55% to 1,839 yuan at its latest share price, with its total market value at 2,310.1 billion yuan.If we take a longer view, Moutai has been negative for 4 consecutive times recently, with a cumulative decline of 5.93% and a total market value of about 145 billion yuan.I still remember that on February 10, 2021, the last trading day of the year of the Rat, CITIC Securities shouted moutai’s one-year target price of 3,000 yuan in a research report titled “Three Trillion Yuan from the beginning, Changpo Snow spring Breeze”.On February 18, 2021, the first trading day of the Year of the Ox, Moutai’s share price once soared as high as 2,627.88 yuan, suggesting that the target of 3,000 yuan is not far away.However, the reality is that after the high price of 2,627.88 yuan, Moutai started a sharp decline, and once fell to 1,525.50 yuan on August 20, 2021, with the market value of one trillion yuan vanishing in dust.Now, the latest price of Moutai is 1839 yuan, which is about 1200 yuan less than the target price of 3000 yuan called by Citic Securities in one year. The remaining 2 trading days to complete the price are impossible. Obviously, Citic Securities is beaten in the face.Moutai did not realize 3,000 yuan, citic Securities was humiliated, the problem may be two aspects, on the one hand, performance, on the other hand, Moutai is too mythic.The biggest risk in capital markets is uncertainty, and Moutai’s biggest characteristic is certainty, with production and selling prices so stable that performance can be estimated almost in advance.During the epidemic period in 2020, the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises was full of uncertainties. In order to avoid risks, institutions, especially public funds, flocked to big consumption led by Moutai, pushing up moutai’s stock price in 2020.The problem, however, is also with established performance.For such a large enterprise as Moutai, it is normal for its performance to slow down.According to the announcement of moutai’s 2021 annual production and operation, moutai expects its net profit in 2021 to be about 52 billion yuan, with a growth rate of about 11.3%.Compared with the growth of Moutai’s net profit in the past five years, we can obviously see that the growth of Moutai’s net profit has slowed down.And the institutional group too quickly push up the stock price, it seems that there is also the possibility of overdrawing the future.After the epidemic, the price performance of small and medium-sized market cap stocks has become prominent, and large market cap consumer stocks have become chicken ribs, and institutions will flee to choose other stocks to cluster together.For example, in 2021, “Ning Portfolio” came out of the blue, once rising, so that many fund institutions and other groups have formed “Ning portfolio”.In the third quarter of 2021, Ningde Times once replaced Moutai as the fund’s top heavy position, driving ningde times’s share price up all the way.However, capital can make cattle, also can let cattle fall altar.A long time on the altar of the stock, as long as a little wind, will be crazy to escape, and then cattle stock also fell down.Looking back, what kind of belief supports Maotai?Is it the wine table?Or an obsession with the smell of soy sauce?No, it’s capital’s true love for leeks.It is interesting that, after the completion of the 2021 fund’s fourth-quarter report, the butt of ningde’s top heavy stock was not hot, but was replaced by Kweichow Moutai.According to securities Daily, 1716 public funds in the fourth quarter heavy positions in Moutai, Moutai has once again become public funds in the heart of the “YYDS” (eternal god), and want to let investors are drunk?Moutai, some say, is a model value investment, but its performance over the past few years has proved lucrative for long-term holders.But to be clear, Maotai has been molded into a myth, far beyond the scope of value investment. There is a word on the Internet called “Support killing”, the higher the support, the harder the fall.Moutai is a good company, 3000 yuan stock price may be realized, but at present, 3000 yuan only live in citic Securities research newspaper!